9 Predictors of Divorce in Modern U.S. Marriages
It hurts to write a post like this, but it's not lost on me that sometimes divorce is the best option. Relying solely on research, I decided to point out the nine predictors of divorce in the hopes that my readers will recognize the seriousness of problems in their relationship.
What I'm sharing does not guarantee a breakup, but it should serve as a warning. If you married after 1980, these are the most common predictors of divorce in the U.S.
1. Toxic Communication (a.k.a. The Four Horsemen)
Dr. John Gottman is a psychologist and renowned relationship researcher best known for decades of evidence-based research on what predicts marital stability, conflict, and divorce. He labeled the following communication patterns the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse:
Criticism — Attacking your partner’s character rather than addressing a specific behavior.
Contempt — Communicating disrespect through mocking, sarcasm, insults, eye-rolling, or superiority.
Defensiveness — Responding to concerns by making excuses, denying responsibility, or shifting blame to your partner.
Stonewalling — Emotionally withdrawing or shutting down during conflict.
Of the four, Dr. Gottman believes that contempt is the biggest red flag.
2. Financial Struggles and Stress
Financial conflict in relationships is not uncommon. What separates unhappy from happy couples is how well they can handle conflict.
Research and surveys dating back decades finds that money is a leading citing reason for divorce and stress in a relationship. And when financial conflict arises frequently because of the challenges that accompany lower incomes, those folks face higher divorce risks.
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3. Marrying Too Young
The younger you marry, the higher the risk of divorce. This isn't always the case. My wife and I married young and have been married since 2002. But younger couples face greater financial challenges early on and are more likely to grow apart as they mature. Research finds that each additional year of age before marriage improves the odds of long-term success.
4. Living Together Without a Plan
My son and his girlfriend just moved in together, so we shared this red flag with them. Cohabitation before marriage used to be linked to higher divorce rates, but that's less true today and depends on why they moved in together. If the primary reason is to reduce cost or for other practical reasons, divorce is more likely. But it doesn't increase the probability of divorce if the couple sees it as a natural progression in their marriage.
5. Parental Divorce
If your parents divorced, your own risk goes up, especially if the split happened when you were young. And as you can imagine, when both spouses are children of divorce, the odds climb even higher.
6. Infidelity
It's no surprise that cheating continues to be one of the most common reasons couples split. Affairs usually point to deeper issues like lack of intimacy or chronic conflict, but the betrayal itself is often the final straw.
7. Substance Abuse
Addiction, whether to alcohol or drugs, puts a huge strain on a marriage. We know that men are more likely to turn to alcohol rather than therapy to cope with their problems, including their marriage. And solving a marital problem with an addiction makes matters far worse.
8. “We Just Grew Apart”
Not every marriage ends in drama. People change over time, and sometimes they simply don't change together.
9. Too Many Risk Factors at Once
Many of these predictors overlap, and as you can imagine, they often compound the likelihood of divorce.
Resources
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Citations
Amato, P. R. & Rogers, S. J. (1997). Journal of Marriage and Family, 59(3): 612,624, Longitudinal research on marital instability; identified issues like infidelity, jealousy, drinking, etc., reported early in marriage as predictors of divorce over 12 years
Amato, P. R. & Previti, D. (2003). Journal of Family Issues, 24(5): 602,626, Survey of divorced individuals on their reasons for divorce; infidelity, incompatibility, and substance abuse emerged as the top self-reported causes
Fincham, F. & Beach, S. (2010). “Predictors of divorce and relationship dissolution” in Handbook of Divorce and Relationship Dissolution, Comprehensive review of risk factors (e.g. age at marriage, parental divorce, religiosity, personality traits) for marriages in late 20th century
National Center for Health Statistics / BGSU National Marriage Database , Demographic data on marriage outcomes (e.g. divorce rates by age of marriage) for U.S. couples in the 1990s and 2000s
